Otsogolera opanga ma memory chips akugwira ntchito molimbika kuti athetse kuzizira kozizira.Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix ndi Micron akuchepetsa kupanga, kuthana ndi mavuto azinthu, kupulumutsa ndalama zazikulu, ndikuchedwetsa kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo wapamwamba kuti athane ndi kufunikira kofooka kwa kukumbukira."Tili mu nthawi ya kuchepa kwa phindu".Pa Okutobala 27, Samsung Electronics idauza osunga ndalama pamsonkhano wachitatu wa lipoti lazachuma kuti, kuwonjezera apo, kuchuluka kwa kampaniyo kudakwera kwambiri gawo lachitatu.
Memory ndi nthambi yapamwamba kwambiri ya msika wa semiconductor, yomwe ili ndi msika pafupifupi madola mabiliyoni a 160 mu 2021. Itha kuwonekanso paliponse muzinthu zamagetsi.Ndi chinthu chokhazikika chomwe chakula kwambiri pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi.Makampaniwa ali ndi nthawi yodziwikiratu ndikusintha kwazinthu, kufunikira, ndi kuthekera.Kupanga ndi kupindula kwa opanga kumasintha kwambiri ndi kusintha kwa cyclical kwa makampani.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa TrendForce Jibang Consulting, kukula kwa msika wa NAND mu 2022 kudzakhala 23.2% yokha, yomwe ndi chiwerengero chotsika kwambiri pazaka 8 zaposachedwa;Kukula kwa kukumbukira (DRAM) ndi 19% yokha, ndipo ikuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka 14.1% mu 2023.
Jeffrey Mathews, katswiri wofufuza zaukadaulo wama foni a m'manja ku Strategy Analytics, adauza atolankhani kuti kuchulukirachulukira pamsika kwachititsa kuti kutsika kwatsika, chomwenso ndicho chifukwa chachikulu chamitengo yotsika ya DRAM ndi NAND.Mu 2021, opanga adzakhala ndi chiyembekezo pakuwonjezeka kwa kupanga.NAND ndi DRAM zidzasowabe.Pamene mbali yofunikira iyamba kuchepa mu 2022, msika udzakhala wochulukira.SK Hynix ina inanena mu lipoti lake lachitatu lazachuma kuti kufunikira kwa zinthu za DRAM ndi NAND kunali kwaulesi, ndipo kugulitsa ndi mitengo zonse zidatsika.
Sravan Kundojjala, director of the mobile phone component technical services of Strategy Analytics, adauza atolankhani kuti kutsika kwachuma komaliza kunachitika mu 2019, pomwe ndalama ndi ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pazokumbukira zonse zidatsika kwambiri, ndipo msika wofooka udatenga magawo awiri kotala asanatuluke.Pali zofananira pakati pa 2022 ndi 2019, koma nthawi ino kusinthaku kukuwoneka ngati kokulirapo.
Jeffrey Mathews adati kuzunguliraku kudakhudzidwanso ndi kufunikira kocheperako, kuchepa kwachuma komanso kusamvana pakati pa mayiko.Kufunika kwa mafoni a m'manja ndi ma PC, omwe amayendetsa kukumbukira kwazaka zambiri, ndikofooka kwambiri ndipo akuyembekezeka kupitilira mpaka 2023.
Samsung Electronics inanena kuti pazida zam'manja, zofunidwa zitha kukhala zofooka komanso pang'onopang'ono mu theka loyamba la chaka chamawa, ndipo chidaliro cha ogula chidzakhalabe chochepa chifukwa cha kufooka kwa nyengo.Kwa PC, zowerengera zomwe zasonkhanitsidwa chifukwa cha malonda otsika zidzatha mu theka loyamba la chaka chamawa, ndipo zikutheka kuwona kuchira kwakukulu pakufunidwa.Kampaniyo ipitiliza kuyang'ana ngati chuma chambiri chikhoza kukhazikika mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chamawa komanso zizindikiro za kuyambiranso kwa mafakitale.
Sravan Kundojjala adati malo opangira data, magalimoto, mafakitale, luntha lochita kupanga komanso malo ochezera a pa Intaneti amapereka opereka kukumbukira kukula kwamtsogolo.Micron, SK Hynix ndi Samsung Electronics onse anena za kutuluka kwa madalaivala ena atsopano mu malipoti azachuma a gawo lachitatu: malo opangira ma data ndi maseva azikhala mphamvu yotsatira pamsika wamakumbukiro.
High kufufuza
Chipangizo chamagetsi choyambirira chimaphatikizapo machitidwe otsatirawa, masensa, mapurosesa, kukumbukira ndi ma actuators.Memory imayang'anira ntchito yokumbukira chidziwitso, yomwe imatha kugawidwa mu memory (DRAM) ndi flash memory (NAND) molingana ndi mtundu wazinthu.Mtundu wamba wamtundu wa DRAM ndi gawo la kukumbukira.Kung'anima kumawonekera kulikonse m'moyo, kuphatikizapo microSD khadi, U disk, SSD (solid state disk), etc.
Msika wa kukumbukira ndiwokhazikika kwambiri.Malinga ndi data ya World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organisation (WSTS), Samsung, Micron ndi SK Hynix palimodzi zimatengera pafupifupi 94% ya msika wa DRAM.M'munda wa NAND Flash, Samsung, Armor Man, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Micron ndi Intel pamodzi amawerengera pafupifupi 98%.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa TrendForce Jibang, mitengo ya DRAM yatsika kuyambira koyambirira kwa chaka, ndipo mtengo wamgwirizano mu theka lachiwiri la 2022 udzatsika kuposa 10% kotala lililonse.Mitengo ya NAND yachepetsedwanso.Mu gawo lachitatu, kuchepa kunawonjezeka kuchokera 15-20% mpaka 30-35%.
Pa Okutobala 27, Samsung Electronics idatulutsa zotsatira zake zachitatu, zomwe zidawonetsa kuti dipatimenti ya semiconductor (DS) yomwe imayang'anira bizinesi ya chip inali ndi ndalama zokwana 23.02 thililiyoni zomwe zidapambana mgawo lachitatu, zotsika kuposa zomwe akatswiri amayembekezera.Ndalama za dipatimenti yoyang'anira bizinesi yosungiramo zinthu zidapambana 15.23 thililiyoni, kutsika ndi 28% mwezi pamwezi ndi 27% pachaka.Samsung Electronics imaphatikizapo ma semiconductors, zida zapakhomo, mapanelo ndi mafoni.
Kampaniyo inanena kuti kufooka kwa kukumbukira kumabisa kukwera kwa magwiridwe antchito.Phindu lonse la phindu linatsika ndi 2.7%, ndipo phindu la ntchito linatsikanso ndi 4.1 peresenti kufika pa 14.1%.
Pa Okutobala 26, ndalama za SK Hynix mgawo lachitatu zidapambana 10.98 thililiyoni, ndipo phindu lake logwira ntchito lidapambana 1.66 thililiyoni, pomwe malonda ndi phindu logwira ntchito zidatsika 20.5% ndi 60.5% mwezi uliwonse motsatana.Pa Seputembara 29, Micron, fakitale ina yayikulu, idatulutsa lipoti lake lazachuma gawo lachinayi la 2022 (June Ogasiti 2022).Ndalama zake zinali US $ 6.64 biliyoni zokha, kutsika 23% mwezi pamwezi ndi 20% chaka pachaka.
Samsung Electronics inanena kuti zifukwa zazikulu zomwe zimafunikira kufooka ndizovuta zomwe zikupitilirabe ndipo makasitomala osintha zinthu akukumana nawo, omwe ndi akulu kuposa momwe amayembekezera.Kampaniyo idazindikira kuti msika udadandaula ndi kuchuluka kwake kwazinthu zambiri chifukwa cha kufooka kwa zinthu zokumbukira.
Samsung Electronics idati ikuyesera kuwongolera zomwe zili mulingo woyenera.Komanso, kuchuluka kwazinthu zamakono sikungathenso kuweruzidwa ndi miyezo yapitayi, chifukwa makasitomala akukumana ndi kusintha kwazinthu, ndipo kusintha kwasintha kwadutsa zomwe zikuyembekezeka.
Jeffrey Mathews adati m'mbuyomu, motsogozedwa ndi kuchuluka kwa msika wosungirako, opanga adathamangira kuti akwaniritse zofunikira ndikukulitsa zotuluka.Ndi kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa makasitomala, zoperekazo zinali zochulukira pang'onopang'ono.Tsopano akulimbana ndi mavuto awo osungira zinthu.
Meguiar Light adati pafupifupi makasitomala onse akuluakulu pamsika womaliza akupanga zosintha.Sravan Kundojjala adauza atolankhani kuti pakali pano, ena ogulitsa akusaina mapangano anthawi yayitali ndi makasitomala, akuyembekeza kuti achepetse zinthu zomwe zamalizidwa muzinthuzo, komanso akuyesera kuti zinthuzo zisinthidwe kuti zitheke kuti zisinthe kusintha kulikonse.
Njira yodziletsa
"Nthawi zonse takhala tikugogomezera kukhathamiritsa kwa mtengo kuti mtengo wake ukhale wapamwamba kuposa wopikisana naye aliyense, yomwe ndi njira yowonetsetsa kuti phindu liri lokhazikika pakadali pano".Samsung Electronics imakhulupirira kuti zogulitsa zimakhala ndi zotsika mtengo, zomwe zitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito popanga zofunidwa.Inde, zotsatira zake zimakhala zochepa kwambiri, ndipo mtengo wamtengo wapatali ukadali wosalamulirika.
SK Hynix inanena pamsonkhano wa lipoti lazachuma chachitatu kuti pofuna kukulitsa mtengo, kampaniyo idayesetsa kukonza kuchuluka kwa malonda ndi zokolola zazinthu zatsopano mgawo lachitatu, koma kutsika kwakukulu kwamitengo kudaposa ndalama zomwe zidachepetsedwa, komanso phindu logwirira ntchito. adakana.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa TrendForce Jibang, kutulutsa kukumbukira kwa Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix ndi Micron kwangokhala ndi kukula kwa 12-13% chaka chino.Mu 2023, zotulutsa za Samsung Electronics zidzatsika ndi 8%, SK Hynix ndi 6.6%, ndi Micron ndi 4.3%.
Mafakitole akuluakulu amasamala pakugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zazikulu komanso kukulitsa kupanga.SK Hynix adanena kuti ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito chaka chamawa zidzacheperachepera 50% pachaka, ndipo ndalama za chaka chino zikuyembekezeka kukhala pafupifupi 10-20 thililiyoni.Micron adatinso zichepetsa kwambiri ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito mchaka cha 2023 ndikuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafakitale opanga.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting adanena kuti ponena za kukumbukira, poyerekeza ndi mapulani a ndalama za Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2023 ndi Q4 2022, zidutswa za 40000 zokha zidzawonjezedwa pakati;SK Hynix adawonjezera makanema 20,000, pomwe Meguiar anali wocheperako, ndi makanema enanso 5000 okha.Kuwonjezera apo, opanga poyamba anali kumanga zomera zatsopano zokumbukira.Pakalipano, kupita patsogolo kwa zomera kukupita patsogolo, koma zochitika zonse zikuchedwa.
Samsung Electronics ili ndi chiyembekezo pakukulitsa kupanga.Kampaniyo inanena kuti idzapitirizabe kusunga ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama zoyenera kuti zigwirizane ndi zofuna zapakati - komanso za nthawi yayitali, koma ndalama zake pazida zidzasintha kwambiri.Ngakhale kufunikira kwa msika komwe kulipo kukucheperachepera, kampaniyo ikuyenera kukonzekera kuyambiranso kwanthawi yayitali komanso kwakanthawi kuchokera pamalingaliro anzeru, kotero kampaniyo sidzachepetsa kupanga kupanga kuti ikwaniritse kwakanthawi kochepa komanso zofunikira.
Jeffrey Mathews adanena kuti kuchepetsa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi zotulukapo zidzakhudzanso kafukufuku ndi chitukuko cha luso lamakono la opanga, ndipo kuthamanga kwa kukwera kumalo okwera kudzakhala pang'onopang'ono, kotero kuchepetsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali (ndalama zochepa) zidzachepetsedwanso.
Tikuyembekezera chaka chamawa
Opanga osiyanasiyana amatanthauzira msika wamakumbukiro mosiyana.Malinga ndi gawo la terminal, mphamvu zitatu zoyendetsa kukumbukira ndi mafoni anzeru, ma PC ndi maseva.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting ikuneneratu kuti gawo la msika wamakumbukiro kuchokera ku maseva lidzakula mpaka 36% mu 2023, pafupi ndi gawo la mafoni am'manja.Zokumbukira zam'manja zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pama foni am'manja zimakhala ndi malo ochepa okwera, omwe atha kuchepetsedwa kuchokera pa 38.5% yoyambirira mpaka 37.3%.Zamagetsi ogula pamsika wa kukumbukira kwa flash zidzakhala zofooka, mafoni anzeru akukula ndi 2.8% ndipo ma laputopu akutsika ndi 8-9%.
Liu Jiahao, woyang'anira kafukufuku wa Jibang Consulting, adanena pa "2022 Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Summit and Storage Industry Summit" pa October 12 kuti chitukuko cha kukumbukira chikhoza kugawidwa m'magulu angapo oyendetsa galimoto, oyendetsedwa ndi laptops kuyambira 2008 mpaka 2011;Mu 2012, ndi kutchuka kwa zipangizo zamakono monga mafoni a m'manja ndi mapiritsi, komanso moyendetsedwa ndi intaneti, zipangizozi zidalowa m'malo mwa laptops monga mphamvu yaikulu yoyendetsa kukumbukira;Mu nthawi ya 2016-2019, mapulogalamu a pa intaneti awonjezeka kwambiri, ma seva ndi malo osungiramo deta akhala ofunika kwambiri monga zomangamanga za digito, ndipo kusungirako kwayamba kukhala ndi mphamvu zatsopano.
Jeffrey Mathews adati kuzungulira komaliza kukumbukira kunachitika mu 2019, chifukwa kufunikira kwa ma foni a m'manja, msika waukulu kwambiri, kudatsika.Panthawiyo, mayendedwe ogulitsira adapeza kuchuluka kwazinthu, kufunikira kwa opanga mafoni anzeru kudatsika, ndipo NAND ndi DRAM ASP (mtengo wogulitsa) wamafoni anzeru nawonso adatsika.
Liu Jiahao adati kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2022, vuto la mliri, kusintha kwa digito, kufooka kwamagetsi ogula ndi zinthu zina zosinthika zidawonekera, ndipo kufunikira kwamakampani opanga makompyuta olimba kwambiri kunali kolimba kuposa kale.Opanga zambiri pa intaneti ndi IT ayika malo opangira ma data, zomwe zapangitsanso kukula kwapang'onopang'ono kwa digito kumtambo.Kufunika kosungirako ma seva kudzamveka bwino.Ngakhale kuti msika wamakono udakali wochepa, malo osungiramo deta ndi ma seva adzakhala oyendetsa msika wosungirako nthawi yayitali komanso yayitali.
Samsung Electronics idzawonjezera malonda a ma seva ndi malo opangira deta mu 2023. Samsung Electronics inanena kuti, poganizira za ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pazinthu zofunikira monga AI ndi 5G, kufunikira kwa zinthu za DRAM kuchokera ku maseva kudzakhazikika chaka chamawa.
Sravan Kundojjala adanena kuti ogulitsa ambiri akufuna kuchepetsa chidwi chawo pamisika ya PC ndi ma smartphone.Nthawi yomweyo, malo opangira data, magalimoto, mafakitale, luntha lochita kupanga komanso magawo amtaneti amawapatsa mwayi wokulirapo.
Jeffrey Mathews adati chifukwa chakupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo wamakumbukiro kupita ku ma node apamwamba, magwiridwe antchito a NAND ndi DRAM akuyembekezeka kukwaniritsa kudumpha kwa m'badwo wotsatira.Zikuyembekezeka kuti kufunikira kwa misika yayikulu yomaliza monga ma data center, zida ndi komputa yam'mphepete zidzakula kwambiri, chifukwa chake ogulitsa akuyendetsa mbiri yawo yazokumbukira.M'kupita kwa nthawi, tikuyembekeza kuti opereka kukumbukira adzakhala osamala pakukulitsa mphamvu ndikukhalabe okhwima komanso kusunga mitengo.
Nthawi yotumiza: Nov-05-2022